Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic in Indonesia: Cases Overview and Daily Data Time Series using Naïve Forecast Method
Abstract
At the end of December 2019, the virus emerges from Wuhan, China, and resulted in a severe outbreak in many cities in China and expanding globally, including Indonesia. Indonesia is the fourth most populated country globally. As of February 2021, Indonesia in the first rank of positive cases of COVID-19 in Southeast Asia, number 4 in Asia, and number 19 in the world. Our paper aims to provide detailed reporting and analysis of the COVID-19 case overview and forecasting that have hit Indonesia. Our time-series dataset from March 2020 to January 2021. Summary of cases studied included the number of positive cases and deaths due to COVID-19 on a daily or monthly basis. We use time series and forecasting analysis using the Naïve Forecast method. The prediction is daily case prediction for six months starting from February 1, 2021, to June 30, 2021, using active cases daily COVID-19 data in all provinces in Indonesia. The highest monthly average case prediction is in June, which is 35,662 cases. Our COVID-19 prediction study has a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) score of 15.85%.
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